I won’t take too much time to thank myself for nearly calling a perfect pay-per-view last go-round. However, I will shake the hand of all waiting in line for my calling the first-round devastation of the buzzkill that is Jon Fitch. I shouted and fist-pumped right along with the rest of the TapOut-adorned crowd, and I didn’t give one tiny bit of a damn. Fitch lost, and I effin’ lost it.
With the impending retirement of “Baby Jay” Penn, limbo of Clay Guida and decline of Forrest Griffin, I seem to have room at the top of my favorite fighter list. I’m looking at you, Johny Hendricks. Tell your beard he’s invited, too.
On with the picks.
Edson Barboza def. Terry Etim, Unanimous Decision, Round 3
Unless Etim has been drinking Tasmanian devil blood, he’ll drop this one. It’ll be close, but he’ll drop it.
Etim, a Brit, has notched a number of submission victories, but most have come after he knocked the piss out his opponent, then slapped on a rear naked like a Christmas bow. As killer as his instincts ate, I’ve seen him outclassed at times in the UFC (See: Tibau, Gleason). That was a few years ago, granted, but Etim is still a middle of the pack lightweight who is a bit too slight of frame to throw death-dagger punches like a Sam Stout or a Melvin Guillard.
His opponent, Barboza, has some dirty leg kicks and his boxing is cereal-sans-milk crisp. The Brazilian last struggled with TUF Season 9 winner Ross Pearson – who has never been knocked out – but he dropped enough bombs to knock Pearson back to the days of finger painting. Barboza will weather Etim’s early storm and notch a third consecutive decision victory.
*Bonus prediction: Dead front leg, a swollen eye and Fight of the Night honors.
Erick Silva def. Carlo Prater, Unanimous Decision, Round 3
Silva last lost via decision five years ago. That ain’t changing Saturday night.
Silva is solid all-around. I’ve only seem him fight once, so I can’t really say what he’s best at. To me he fights like a stronger, more athletic Kenny Florian (without a nose beckoning to be destroyed). He impressed in his fight against Luis Ramos, but Ramos was a UFC nobody. His sophomore effort comes against a veteran – of fighting, not of the UFC — who owns a few solid wins.
Prater has 40 career pro fights, and he holds wins over Carlos Condit (2004), Spencer Fisher (2004) and Melvin Guillard (2003). He has the look and build of a fighter, but the record of an average athlete. I YouTubed a few highlight videos of him to get a sense of his fighting style. Snoozefest.
It was like watching a highlight reel for a long snapper.
Given the lack of quality footage and info on Prater, I’ll make this call as fairly as I can: Silva trains with the Nogueira brothers. Prater’s camp keenly calls itself “Thugjitsu.” Hmmm.
I’ll take the up-and-coming Silva to wreck Prater’s UFC debut. A solid, entertaining contest but a decision for Silva.
Rousimar Palhares def. Mike Massenzio, Submission (armbar), Round 1
Massenzio is one of the fellers you see in the middle of the card every few months and think,”I know the name, did I go to high school with that guy?”
Chances are if you know the name but no fights ring a bell, he’s a solid, but boring, average UFC competitor. Sure enough, he has gone 2-3 in the UFC, gaining the loss trifecta (losses via TKO, Sub and Dec) along the way. His most impressive feat was submitting Drew “My-first-fight-was-a-TKO-loss-due-to-exhaustion” McFedries by Kimura back in 2008. Massenzio will not pull to .500 with this matchup.
Palhares looks like the lovechild of Big Nog and Mark Muñoz. He has lost only three times in his career: Once was his third career fight, two were by decision and two were to former UFC middleweight contenders (Hendo and Marquardt). He submits punchers, wrestlers, kickboxers and even other Brazilians. The only folks he can’t submit are quality American grapplers (Dan Miller, Jeremy Horn). What he certainly doesn’t do is lose to also-rans like Massenzio.

*Bonus Prediction: Submission of the Night honors.
Anthony Johnson def. Vitor Belfort, KO (punch), Round 1
I hope this slobberknocker turns in a simultaneous hook, whoever’s head hits the mat first double-KO because that’s what we’ll need on the heels of two decisions and an arm tug.
I’ll keep this as short and sweet as this KO of the night fight is sure to be: Belfort’s hands once looked Oregon fast and ‘Bama powerful, so Johnson game plan like he did for Dan Hardy and take the lay-and-pray route. I don’t think he pulls it off in the bigger weight class. Belfort with a first round KO.
Those were my initial thoughts. But after going back to some Rumble Johnson footage, my gut is telling me to take the former welterweight. Johnson smashes Belfort’s jaw with a Thor’s Hammer right, first-round KO.
Jose Aldo def. Chad Mendes, TKO (punches and kicks), Round 2
Aldo has been – for him, and what I’ve come to expect from him – less than impressive lately. He’s one of sport’s best strikers, he’s fighting in his home country and he has floored plenty of wrestlers like Mendes. His cardio will be better than it was against Hominick and his killer instinct won’t be missing like it was against Florian.
Mendes is Urijah Faber-lite. He fights on Faber’s team, in his old weight class and uses his speed and conditioning to wear other fighters down. If he wants out of Faber’s six-inch shadow, he’ll be on the lookout for the leg kicks Aldo used to chop Faber down to the booster seat bunch. Mendes’ best chance is to channel his inner Chael Sonnen, and hope Aldo comes in with bruised ribs. The Team Alpha Male standout is powerful, but if Faber couldn’t get his hands on Aldo, neither will he.
Aldo will test the waters for a round, his adrenaline will kick in as the crowd cheers his name. After Mendes attempts a flying knee, he’ll get pissed and handle his business.
If this one gets boring goes to decision, expect news regarding a change in weight class for a big-name fighter, possibly Anthony Pettis.
*Bonus Prediction: Knockout of the Night honors, and a glassy-eyed Mendes trying to wrestle the referee post-stoppage.
